明年无鱼
Next Year, No FishLake WSLH
The end 终

The houses

DoctorDayTrade built the biggest: upper floor

The whole village kept 450 fish.

The lake

明年
无鱼

Next year, no fish

Fewer than two fish are left; none can spawn. Next year there will be no fish to catch.

What happened

  • Year 1Jin bought the first fine net.
  • Year 1DoctorDayTrade netted the golden carp (+8).
  • Year 2DoctorDayTrade netted the golden carp (+8).
  • Year 3DoctorDayTrade netted the golden carp (+8).
  • Year 4DoctorDayTrade netted the golden carp (+8).
  • Year 4Old Wang and DoctorDayTrade promised each other: coarse nets until winter.

Every house

Why it went this way
what you found: 165 165 Year 1 112 Year 2 81 Year 3 31 Year 4 10禁 Year 5 0 End 0 Next year

Grown fish at the start of each year, at the end, and next year if nobody fishes. A seal marks a year the village kept a rule.

FamilyNetKeptFry takenBroke ruleBroke promiseHouse
DoctorDayTradefine18421upper floor 楼
Jin (bot)fine129497lanterns 灯笼
Mei (bot)fine92309red gate 红门
Old Wang (bot)coarse450tiled roof 瓦房

Why the fine net is hard to refuse

We simulated this lake many times with four families who all aim well, comparing each family with itself: the same lake and the same seat, once keeping a coarse net and once buying a fine net as soon as it could.

Other families with fine netsKeep coarseSwitchSwitching paid
0132.2164.386/96
195.1106.066/96
273.779.564/96
366.564.341/96

Fish each family kept, on average over 24 lakes. Switching paid most families most of the time, until the last one: when the three others already have fine nets, there is too little left to take. If every family keeps a coarse net, each keeps about 132 fish and the lake survived every time; if every family switches, each keeps about 64 and the lake died in all 24. Garrett Hardin called this the tragedy of the commons (1968); H. Scott Gordon had shown in 1954 that an open fishery draws in effort until the extra boats earn nothing.

It is not the only ending

Elinor Ostrom studied fisheries, forests and irrigation systems that lasted for centuries because the people who used them made their own rules, watched each other and answered whoever broke them (Ostrom 1990). In laboratory commons, promises made face to face helped, and promises backed by a way to answer cheaters helped more (Ostrom, Walker and Gardner 1992). Your meeting offered three of the oldest fishing rules: a limit on the gear, a closed season, and a protected nursery. In our simulations with four fine nets, a ban left 173 grown fish for the next year, a protected nursery 116, and a closed spring 51.

Li Ge cuts the duke's net. One summer Duke Xuan of Lu cast his nets in the river Si while the fish were spawning. His officer Li Ge cut the net and threw it away: the old rule spares the roe and the fry, he said, and casting nets while the fish spawn is greed without limit. The duke answered: this is a good net, it taught me the rule; keep it, so I do not forget. 里革断罟匡君 (Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”)

And from the Lüshi Chunqiu, c. 239 BC: 竭泽而渔，岂不获得？而明年无鱼。 “Drain the lake and of course you catch the fish. But next year there are no fish.”

  1. Lüshi Chunqiu, “Yi Shang” (c. 239 BC).
  2. Mencius, “Liang Hui Wang I”: 数罟不入洿池，鱼鳖不可胜食也.
  3. Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”: 里革断罟匡君 (鱼禁鲲鲕; 今鱼方别孕).
  4. Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859), 1243–1248.
  5. Gordon, H. S. (1954). The economic theory of a common-property resource: the fishery. Journal of Political Economy 62(2), 124–142.
  6. Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons. Cambridge University Press.
  7. Ostrom, E., Walker, J. & Gardner, R. (1992). Covenants with and without a sword. American Political Science Review 86(2), 404–417.
The whole record (424 rows)

This season's secret was 405250358984ac286292e388ca83747605b5dc56f0069c3c5ae6bdcaf135417d. Its hash was fixed when the lake opened; with the secret and this record, anyone can replay every fish and every net.

  1. DoctorDayTrade joined
  2. Y1The season started
  3. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  4. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  5. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  6. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net took 1 fish
  7. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  8. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  9. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  10. Y1Jin's net came up empty
  11. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  12. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  13. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  14. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net took 12 fish
  15. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  16. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  17. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  18. Y1Jin's net took 6 fish
  19. Y1Mei's net took 6 fish
  20. Y1Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  21. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  22. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net took 3 fish
  23. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  24. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  25. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  26. Y1Old Wang's net took 7 fish
  27. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  28. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  29. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  30. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  31. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net took 10 fish
  32. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  33. Y1Mei's net took 5 fish
  34. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  35. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  36. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  37. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  38. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  39. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net took 5 fish
  40. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  41. Y1Mei's net took 7 fish
  42. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  43. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  44. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  45. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  46. Y1Jin's net took 5 fish
  47. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  48. Y1Old Wang's net took 6 fish
  49. Y1Jin bought a fine net
  50. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  51. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net took 1 fish and the golden carp
  52. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  53. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  54. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  55. Y1Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  56. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  57. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net took 6 fish
  58. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  59. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  60. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  61. Y1Jin's net took 8 fish
  62. Y1Mei's net took 7 fish
  63. Y1Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  64. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  65. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  66. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  67. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  68. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  69. Y1Jin's net took 8 fish
  70. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  71. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  72. Y1DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  73. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  74. Y1DoctorDayTrade's net took 4 fish
  75. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  76. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  77. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  78. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  79. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  80. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  81. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  82. Y1DoctorDayTrade bought a fine net
  83. Y1Mei bought a fine net
  84. Y1DoctorDayTrade built tiled roof
  85. Y1Jin built tiled roof
  86. Y1Mei built nothing new
  87. Y1Old Wang built nothing new
  88. Y1Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  89. Y1DoctorDayTrade voted: no rule
  90. Y1Jin voted: no rule
  91. Y1Mei voted: no rule
  92. Y1The village chose: no rule
  93. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  94. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  95. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  96. Y2Jin's net took 10 fish
  97. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  98. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  99. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  100. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net took 5 fish
  101. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  102. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  103. Y2Jin's net took 7 fish
  104. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  105. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  106. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net took 18 fish
  107. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  108. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  109. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  110. Y2Jin's net took 1 fish
  111. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  112. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  113. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  114. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net took 20 fish
  115. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  116. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  117. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  118. Y2Jin's net came up empty
  119. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  120. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  121. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  122. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  123. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  124. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net took 10 fish
  125. Y2Jin's net took 11 fish
  126. Y2Mei's net took 7 fish
  127. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  128. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  129. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  130. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  131. Y2Old Wang asked DoctorDayTrade: coarse nets only, until winter?
  132. Y2Jin's net took 1 fish
  133. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  134. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  135. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  136. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  137. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  138. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  139. Y2Jin's net took 7 fish
  140. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  141. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  142. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  143. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  144. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  145. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  146. Y2Mei's net took 4 fish
  147. Y2Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  148. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  149. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net took 5 fish
  150. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  151. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  152. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  153. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  154. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  155. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net took 8 fish
  156. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  157. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  158. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  159. Y2Jin's net took 3 fish
  160. Y2Mei's net took 4 fish
  161. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  162. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  163. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  164. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  165. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  166. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net took 3 fish
  167. Y2Jin's net took 4 fish
  168. Y2Mei's net took 3 fish
  169. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  170. Y2Mei threw a fine net
  171. Y2DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  172. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  173. Y2DoctorDayTrade's net took 2 fish
  174. Y2DoctorDayTrade built red gate
  175. Y2Jin built red gate
  176. Y2Mei built tiled roof
  177. Y2Old Wang built nothing new
  178. Y2Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  179. Y2Jin voted: no rule
  180. Y2DoctorDayTrade voted: no rule
  181. Y2Mei voted: no rule
  182. Y2The village chose: no rule
  183. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  184. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  185. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  186. Y3Jin's net took 9 fish
  187. Y3Mei's net took 20 fish
  188. Y3Old Wang's net took 6 fish
  189. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  190. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  191. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  192. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net took 8 fish
  193. Y3Jin's net took 3 fish
  194. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  195. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  196. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  197. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  198. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  199. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  200. Y3Mei's net took 3 fish
  201. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  202. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net took 5 fish
  203. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  204. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  205. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  206. Y3Jin's net came up empty
  207. Y3Mei's net took 10 fish
  208. Y3Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  209. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  210. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net took 10 fish
  211. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  212. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  213. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  214. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  215. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  216. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  217. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  218. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net took 4 fish
  219. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  220. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  221. Y3Old Wang asked DoctorDayTrade: coarse nets only, until winter?
  222. Y3Mei's net took 5 fish
  223. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  224. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  225. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  226. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  227. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  228. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  229. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  230. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  231. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  232. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  233. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net took 5 fish
  234. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  235. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  236. Y3Jin's net took 1 fish
  237. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  238. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  239. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  240. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  241. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  242. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net took 2 fish
  243. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  244. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  245. Y3Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  246. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  247. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  248. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  249. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  250. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net took 1 fish
  251. Y3Jin's net took 3 fish
  252. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  253. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  254. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  255. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  256. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  257. Y3Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  258. Y3DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  259. Y3DoctorDayTrade's net took 1 fish
  260. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  261. Y3Mei threw a fine net
  262. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  263. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  264. Y3DoctorDayTrade built lanterns
  265. Y3Jin built nothing new
  266. Y3Mei built red gate
  267. Y3Old Wang built tiled roof
  268. Y3DoctorDayTrade voted: no rule
  269. Y3Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  270. Y3Jin voted: no rule
  271. Y3DoctorDayTrade said no to Old Wang
  272. Y3Mei voted: no rule
  273. Y3The village chose: no rule
  274. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  275. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  276. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  277. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  278. Y4Mei's net took 4 fish
  279. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  280. Y4DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  281. Y4DoctorDayTrade's net took 1 fish
  282. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  283. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  284. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  285. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  286. Y4DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  287. Y4DoctorDayTrade's net took 5 fish
  288. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  289. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  290. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  291. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  292. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  293. Y4Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  294. Y4DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  295. Y4DoctorDayTrade's net took 3 fish
  296. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  297. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  298. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  299. Y4Jin's net took 6 fish
  300. Y4Mei's net took 2 fish
  301. Y4Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  302. Y4DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  303. Y4DoctorDayTrade's net took 2 fish
  304. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  305. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  306. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  307. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  308. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  309. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  310. Y4DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  311. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  312. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  313. Y4DoctorDayTrade's net took 3 fish
  314. Y4Old Wang asked DoctorDayTrade: coarse nets only, until winter?
  315. Y4Mei's net took 2 fish
  316. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  317. Y4DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  318. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  319. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  320. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  321. Y4DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  322. Y4Jin's net took 2 fish
  323. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  324. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  325. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  326. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  327. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  328. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  329. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  330. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  331. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  332. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  333. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  334. Y4Jin's net took 2 fish
  335. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  336. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  337. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  338. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  339. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  340. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  341. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  342. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  343. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  344. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  345. Y4DoctorDayTrade threw a fine net
  346. Y4DoctorDayTrade's net took 1 fish
  347. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  348. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  349. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  350. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  351. Y4DoctorDayTrade built upper floor
  352. Y4Jin built lanterns
  353. Y4Mei built nothing new
  354. Y4Old Wang built nothing new
  355. Y4DoctorDayTrade voted: fine nets banned
  356. Y4Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  357. Y4Jin voted: no rule
  358. Y4DoctorDayTrade promised Old Wang
  359. Y4Mei voted: fine nets banned
  360. Y4The village chose: fine nets banned
  361. Y5Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  362. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  363. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  364. Y5Jin's net took 2 fish
  365. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  366. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  367. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  368. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  369. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  370. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  371. Y5DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  372. Y5DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  373. Y5Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  374. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  375. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  376. Y5Jin's net took 1 fish
  377. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  378. Y5Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  379. Y5DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  380. Y5DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  381. Y5Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  382. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  383. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  384. Y5Jin's net took 2 fish
  385. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  386. Y5Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  387. Y5Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  388. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  389. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  390. Y5Jin's net came up empty
  391. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  392. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  393. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  394. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  395. Y5DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  396. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  397. Y5Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  398. Y5DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  399. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  400. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  401. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  402. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  403. Y5DoctorDayTrade threw a coarse net
  404. Y5DoctorDayTrade's net came up empty
  405. Y5Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  406. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  407. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  408. Y5Jin's net took 1 fish
  409. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  410. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  411. Y5Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  412. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  413. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  414. Y5Jin's net took 1 fish
  415. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  416. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  417. Y5Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  418. Y5Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  419. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  420. Y5Jin's net took 1 fish
  421. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  422. Y5Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  423. Y5The season ended