明年无鱼
Next Year, No FishLake TZQB
The end 终

The houses

Jin built the biggest: pagoda

The whole village kept 531 fish.

The lake

年年
有余

Fish to spare

115 grown fish are left of the 165 you found. Left alone for a year, the lake would hold 191. Next year the lake will be as full as you found it.

What happened

  • Year 1Jin bought the first fine net.
  • Year 1Jin netted the golden carp (+8).

Every house

Why it went this way
what you found: 165 165 Year 1 118 Year 2 107 Year 3 95 Year 4 101 Year 5 115 End 191 Next year

Grown fish at the start of each year, at the end, and next year if nobody fishes. A seal marks a year the village kept a rule.

FamilyNetKeptFry takenBroke ruleBroke promiseHouse
Avacoarse00thatched hut 茅屋
Jin (bot)fine34670pagoda 宝塔
Mei (bot)coarse900red gate 红门
Old Wang (bot)coarse950red gate 红门

Why the fine net is hard to refuse

We simulated this lake many times with four families who all aim well, comparing each family with itself: the same lake and the same seat, once keeping a coarse net and once buying a fine net as soon as it could.

Other families with fine netsKeep coarseSwitchSwitching paid
0132.2164.386/96
195.1106.066/96
273.779.564/96
366.564.341/96

Fish each family kept, on average over 24 lakes. Switching paid most families most of the time, until the last one: when the three others already have fine nets, there is too little left to take. If every family keeps a coarse net, each keeps about 132 fish and the lake survived every time; if every family switches, each keeps about 64 and the lake died in all 24. Garrett Hardin called this the tragedy of the commons (1968); H. Scott Gordon had shown in 1954 that an open fishery draws in effort until the extra boats earn nothing.

It is not the only ending

Elinor Ostrom studied fisheries, forests and irrigation systems that lasted for centuries because the people who used them made their own rules, watched each other and answered whoever broke them (Ostrom 1990). In laboratory commons, promises made face to face helped, and promises backed by a way to answer cheaters helped more (Ostrom, Walker and Gardner 1992). Your meeting offered three of the oldest fishing rules: a limit on the gear, a closed season, and a protected nursery. In our simulations with four fine nets, a ban left 173 grown fish for the next year, a protected nursery 116, and a closed spring 51.

Li Ge cuts the duke's net. One summer Duke Xuan of Lu cast his nets in the river Si while the fish were spawning. His officer Li Ge cut the net and threw it away: the old rule spares the roe and the fry, he said, and casting nets while the fish spawn is greed without limit. The duke answered: this is a good net, it taught me the rule; keep it, so I do not forget. 里革断罟匡君 (Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”)

And from the Lüshi Chunqiu, c. 239 BC: 竭泽而渔，岂不获得？而明年无鱼。 “Drain the lake and of course you catch the fish. But next year there are no fish.”

  1. Lüshi Chunqiu, “Yi Shang” (c. 239 BC).
  2. Mencius, “Liang Hui Wang I”: 数罟不入洿池，鱼鳖不可胜食也.
  3. Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”: 里革断罟匡君 (鱼禁鲲鲕; 今鱼方别孕).
  4. Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859), 1243–1248.
  5. Gordon, H. S. (1954). The economic theory of a common-property resource: the fishery. Journal of Political Economy 62(2), 124–142.
  6. Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons. Cambridge University Press.
  7. Ostrom, E., Walker, J. & Gardner, R. (1992). Covenants with and without a sword. American Political Science Review 86(2), 404–417.
The whole record (353 rows)

This season's secret was a6adabc764d3384723b63e75d4ef4bba5c6b667882ce9bfe8ae06d1104ce3f57. Its hash was fixed when the lake opened; with the secret and this record, anyone can replay every fish and every net.

  1. Ava joined
  2. Y1The season started
  3. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  4. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  5. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  6. Y1Jin's net took 3 fish
  7. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  8. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  9. Y1Ava threw a coarse net
  10. Y1Ava's net came up empty
  11. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  12. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  13. Y1Jin's net took 3 fish
  14. Y1Old Wang's net took 8 fish
  15. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  16. Y1Old Wang's net took 13 fish
  17. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  18. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  19. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  20. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  21. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  22. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  23. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  24. Y1Jin's net took 6 fish
  25. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  26. Y1Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  27. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  28. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  29. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  30. Y1Jin's net took 5 fish
  31. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  32. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  33. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  34. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  35. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  36. Y1Jin's net took 10 fish
  37. Y1Mei's net took 3 fish
  38. Y1Old Wang's net took 10 fish
  39. Y1Jin bought a fine net
  40. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  41. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  42. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  43. Y1Jin's net took 11 fish and the golden carp
  44. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  45. Y1Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  46. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  47. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  48. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  49. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  50. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  51. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  52. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  53. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  54. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  55. Y1Jin's net took 7 fish
  56. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  57. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  58. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  59. Y1Jin's net took 10 fish
  60. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  61. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  62. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  63. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  64. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  65. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  66. Y1Ava built nothing new
  67. Y1Jin built tiled roof
  68. Y1Mei built nothing new
  69. Y1Old Wang built tiled roof
  70. Y1Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  71. Y1Jin voted: no rule
  72. Y1Mei voted: no rule
  73. Y1The village chose: no rule
  74. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  75. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  76. Y2Jin's net took 10 fish
  77. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  78. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  79. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  80. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  81. Y2Jin's net took 6 fish
  82. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  83. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  84. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  85. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  86. Y2Jin's net took 13 fish
  87. Y2Old Wang's net took 8 fish
  88. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  89. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  90. Y2Jin's net took 8 fish
  91. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  92. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  93. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  94. Y2Mei's net took 6 fish
  95. Y2Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  96. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  97. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  98. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  99. Y2Old Wang asked Ava: coarse nets only, until winter?
  100. Y2Jin's net took 16 fish
  101. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  102. Y2Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  103. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  104. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  105. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  106. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  107. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  108. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  109. Y2Mei's net took 9 fish
  110. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  111. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  112. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  113. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  114. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  115. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  116. Y2Old Wang's net took 6 fish
  117. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  118. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  119. Y2Jin's net took 10 fish
  120. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  121. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  122. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  123. Y2Jin's net took 7 fish
  124. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  125. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  126. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  127. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  128. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  129. Y2Ava built nothing new
  130. Y2Jin built red gate and lanterns
  131. Y2Mei built tiled roof
  132. Y2Old Wang built nothing new
  133. Y2Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  134. Y2Jin voted: no rule
  135. Y2Mei voted: no rule
  136. Y2The village chose: no rule
  137. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  138. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  139. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  140. Y3Jin's net took 13 fish
  141. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  142. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  143. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  144. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  145. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  146. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  147. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  148. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  149. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  150. Y3Jin's net took 11 fish
  151. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  152. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  153. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  154. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  155. Y3Mei's net took 7 fish
  156. Y3Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  157. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  158. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  159. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  160. Y3Jin's net took 7 fish
  161. Y3Mei's net took 2 fish
  162. Y3Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  163. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  164. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  165. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  166. Y3Old Wang asked Ava: coarse nets only, until winter?
  167. Y3Jin's net took 7 fish
  168. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  169. Y3Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  170. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  171. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  172. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  173. Y3Jin's net took 5 fish
  174. Y3Mei's net took 7 fish
  175. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  176. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  177. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  178. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  179. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  180. Y3Mei's net took 6 fish
  181. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  182. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  183. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  184. Y3Jin's net took 5 fish
  185. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  186. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  187. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  188. Y3Jin's net took 5 fish
  189. Y3Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  190. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  191. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  192. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  193. Y3Jin's net took 5 fish
  194. Y3Mei's net took 3 fish
  195. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  196. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  197. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  198. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  199. Y3Jin's net took 8 fish
  200. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  201. Y3Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  202. Y3Ava built nothing new
  203. Y3Jin built upper floor
  204. Y3Mei built red gate
  205. Y3Old Wang built red gate
  206. Y3Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  207. Y3Jin voted: no rule
  208. Y3Mei voted: no rule
  209. Y3The village chose: no rule
  210. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  211. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  212. Y4Jin's net took 14 fish
  213. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  214. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  215. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  216. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  217. Y4Jin's net took 9 fish
  218. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  219. Y4Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  220. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  221. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  222. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  223. Y4Jin's net took 16 fish
  224. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  225. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  226. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  227. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  228. Y4Mei's net took 4 fish
  229. Y4Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  230. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  231. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  232. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  233. Y4Jin's net took 7 fish
  234. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  235. Y4Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  236. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  237. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  238. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  239. Y4Old Wang asked Ava: coarse nets only, until winter?
  240. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  241. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  242. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  243. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  244. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  245. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  246. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  247. Y4Mei's net took 2 fish
  248. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  249. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  250. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  251. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  252. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  253. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  254. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  255. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  256. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  257. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  258. Y4Jin's net took 5 fish
  259. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  260. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  261. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  262. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  263. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  264. Y4Jin's net took 4 fish
  265. Y4Mei's net took 5 fish
  266. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  267. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  268. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  269. Y4Mei's net took 5 fish
  270. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  271. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  272. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  273. Y4Jin's net took 9 fish
  274. Y4Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  275. Y4Ava built nothing new
  276. Y4Jin built pagoda
  277. Y4Mei built nothing new
  278. Y4Old Wang built nothing new
  279. Y4Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  280. Y4Jin voted: no rule
  281. Y4Mei voted: no rule
  282. Y4The village chose: no rule
  283. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  284. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  285. Y5Jin's net took 7 fish
  286. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  287. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  288. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  289. Y5Jin's net took 8 fish
  290. Y5Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  291. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  292. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  293. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  294. Y5Jin's net took 9 fish
  295. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  296. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  297. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  298. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  299. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  300. Y5Jin's net took 3 fish
  301. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  302. Y5Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  303. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  304. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  305. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  306. Y5Jin's net took 3 fish
  307. Y5Mei's net took 2 fish
  308. Y5Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  309. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  310. Y5Old Wang asked Ava: coarse nets only, until winter?
  311. Y5Old Wang's net took 7 fish
  312. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  313. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  314. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  315. Y5Jin's net came up empty
  316. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  317. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  318. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  319. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  320. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  321. Y5Jin's net took 9 fish
  322. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  323. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  324. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  325. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  326. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  327. Y5Jin's net took 1 fish
  328. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  329. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  330. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  331. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  332. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  333. Y5Jin's net took 9 fish
  334. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  335. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  336. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  337. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  338. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  339. Y5Jin's net took 6 fish
  340. Y5Mei's net took 4 fish
  341. Y5Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  342. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  343. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  344. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  345. Y5Jin's net took 8 fish
  346. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  347. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  348. Y5Ava built nothing new
  349. Y5Jin built nothing new
  350. Y5Mei built nothing new
  351. Y5Old Wang built nothing new
  352. Y5The season ended