明年无鱼
Next Year, No FishLake NWMJ
The end 终

The houses

1 built the biggest: upper floor

The whole village kept 402 fish.

The lake

年年
有余

Fish to spare

151 grown fish are left of the 165 you found. Left alone for a year, the lake would hold 188. Next year the lake will be as full as you found it.

What happened

  • Year 21 bought the first fine net.
  • Year 2kyle netted the golden carp (+8).

Every house

Why it went this way
what you found: 165 165 Year 1 115 Year 2 117 Year 3 152 Year 4 146 Year 5 151 End 188 Next year

Grown fish at the start of each year, at the end, and next year if nobody fishes. A seal marks a year the village kept a rule.

FamilyNetKeptFry takenBroke ruleBroke promiseHouse
1fine2071upper floor 楼
Raycoarse550tiled roof 瓦房
kylecoarse890red gate 红门
NAcoarse510tiled roof 瓦房

Why the fine net is hard to refuse

We simulated this lake many times with four families who all aim well, comparing each family with itself: the same lake and the same seat, once keeping a coarse net and once buying a fine net as soon as it could.

Other families with fine netsKeep coarseSwitchSwitching paid
0132.2164.386/96
195.1106.066/96
273.779.564/96
366.564.341/96

Fish each family kept, on average over 24 lakes. Switching paid most families most of the time, until the last one: when the three others already have fine nets, there is too little left to take. If every family keeps a coarse net, each keeps about 132 fish and the lake survived every time; if every family switches, each keeps about 64 and the lake died in all 24. Garrett Hardin called this the tragedy of the commons (1968); H. Scott Gordon had shown in 1954 that an open fishery draws in effort until the extra boats earn nothing.

It is not the only ending

Elinor Ostrom studied fisheries, forests and irrigation systems that lasted for centuries because the people who used them made their own rules, watched each other and answered whoever broke them (Ostrom 1990). In laboratory commons, promises made face to face helped, and promises backed by a way to answer cheaters helped more (Ostrom, Walker and Gardner 1992). Your meeting offered three of the oldest fishing rules: a limit on the gear, a closed season, and a protected nursery. In our simulations with four fine nets, a ban left 173 grown fish for the next year, a protected nursery 116, and a closed spring 51.

Li Ge cuts the duke's net. One summer Duke Xuan of Lu cast his nets in the river Si while the fish were spawning. His officer Li Ge cut the net and threw it away: the old rule spares the roe and the fry, he said, and casting nets while the fish spawn is greed without limit. The duke answered: this is a good net, it taught me the rule; keep it, so I do not forget. 里革断罟匡君 (Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”)

And from the Lüshi Chunqiu, c. 239 BC: 竭泽而渔，岂不获得？而明年无鱼。 “Drain the lake and of course you catch the fish. But next year there are no fish.”

  1. Lüshi Chunqiu, “Yi Shang” (c. 239 BC).
  2. Mencius, “Liang Hui Wang I”: 数罟不入洿池，鱼鳖不可胜食也.
  3. Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”: 里革断罟匡君 (鱼禁鲲鲕; 今鱼方别孕).
  4. Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859), 1243–1248.
  5. Gordon, H. S. (1954). The economic theory of a common-property resource: the fishery. Journal of Political Economy 62(2), 124–142.
  6. Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons. Cambridge University Press.
  7. Ostrom, E., Walker, J. & Gardner, R. (1992). Covenants with and without a sword. American Political Science Review 86(2), 404–417.
The whole record (178 rows)

This season's secret was c6a9df39e465fe9611744de7efcad5d1c8ae4183885b5e9847ad23bccf389f04. Its hash was fixed when the lake opened; with the secret and this record, anyone can replay every fish and every net.

  1. 1 joined
  2. Ray joined
  3. kyle joined
  4. NA joined
  5. Y1The season started
  6. Y11 threw a coarse net
  7. Y11's net took 5 fish
  8. Y1NA threw a coarse net
  9. Y1NA's net came up empty
  10. Y11 threw a coarse net
  11. Y11's net took 5 fish
  12. Y1NA threw a coarse net
  13. Y1NA's net took 5 fish
  14. Y1Ray threw a coarse net
  15. Y11 threw a coarse net
  16. Y1Ray's net took 1 fish
  17. Y11's net took 4 fish
  18. Y1NA threw a coarse net
  19. Y1NA's net took 6 fish
  20. Y1Ray threw a coarse net
  21. Y11 threw a coarse net
  22. Y1NA threw a coarse net
  23. Y1Ray's net took 5 fish
  24. Y11's net took 15 fish
  25. Y1NA's net came up empty
  26. Y11 threw a coarse net
  27. Y1Ray threw a coarse net
  28. Y1NA threw a coarse net
  29. Y11's net took 5 fish
  30. Y1Ray's net came up empty
  31. Y1NA's net took 4 fish
  32. Y11 threw a coarse net
  33. Y1NA threw a coarse net
  34. Y1Ray threw a coarse net
  35. Y11's net came up empty
  36. Y1NA's net took 4 fish
  37. Y1Ray's net took 12 fish
  38. Y11 threw a coarse net
  39. Y1Ray threw a coarse net
  40. Y1NA threw a coarse net
  41. Y1kyle threw a coarse net
  42. Y11's net took 5 fish
  43. Y1Ray's net took 7 fish
  44. Y1NA's net took 2 fish
  45. Y1kyle's net came up empty
  46. Y1Ray threw a coarse net
  47. Y1Ray's net took 7 fish
  48. Y1kyle threw a coarse net
  49. Y1kyle's net took 8 fish
  50. Y1NA threw a coarse net
  51. Y1NA's net took 3 fish
  52. Y11 threw a coarse net
  53. Y1Ray threw a coarse net
  54. Y11's net came up empty
  55. Y1Ray's net took 8 fish
  56. Y11 built tiled roof
  57. Y1Ray built tiled roof
  58. Y1kyle built nothing new
  59. Y1NA built nothing new
  60. Y11 voted: no fishing in spring
  61. Y1kyle voted: no fishing in spring
  62. Y1The village chose: no rule
  63. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  64. Y2NA's net came up empty
  65. Y21 threw a coarse net
  66. Y2Ray threw a coarse net
  67. Y2kyle threw a coarse net
  68. Y21's net took 11 fish
  69. Y2Ray's net took 3 fish
  70. Y2kyle's net took 2 fish
  71. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  72. Y2NA's net came up empty
  73. Y21 threw a coarse net
  74. Y2Ray threw a coarse net
  75. Y2kyle threw a coarse net
  76. Y21's net took 1 fish
  77. Y2Ray's net took 12 fish
  78. Y2kyle's net came up empty
  79. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  80. Y2NA's net took 8 fish
  81. Y2kyle threw a coarse net
  82. Y2kyle's net took 9 fish
  83. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  84. Y21 threw a coarse net
  85. Y2NA's net took 5 fish
  86. Y21's net came up empty
  87. Y2kyle threw a coarse net
  88. Y2kyle's net took 8 fish
  89. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  90. Y2NA's net came up empty
  91. Y21 bought a fine net
  92. Y21 threw a fine net
  93. Y2kyle threw a coarse net
  94. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  95. Y21's net took 8 fish
  96. Y2kyle's net came up empty
  97. Y2NA's net came up empty
  98. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  99. Y2NA's net took 4 fish
  100. Y2kyle threw a coarse net
  101. Y21 threw a fine net
  102. Y2kyle's net took 9 fish
  103. Y21's net took 2 fish
  104. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  105. Y2NA's net took 1 fish
  106. Y2kyle threw a coarse net
  107. Y2kyle's net took 1 fish
  108. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  109. Y2NA's net took 5 fish
  110. Y21 threw a fine net
  111. Y21's net took 6 fish
  112. Y2kyle threw a coarse net
  113. Y2NA threw a coarse net
  114. Y2kyle's net took 2 fish
  115. Y2NA's net took 4 fish
  116. Y21 built nothing new
  117. Y2Ray built nothing new
  118. Y2kyle built tiled roof
  119. Y2NA built tiled roof
  120. Y21 voted: the shallows protected
  121. Y21 voted: fine nets banned
  122. Y2The village chose: no rule
  123. Y31 threw a fine net
  124. Y31's net took 23 fish
  125. Y31 threw a fine net
  126. Y31's net took 14 fish
  127. Y31 threw a coarse net
  128. Y31's net took 14 fish
  129. Y31 threw a coarse net
  130. Y31's net came up empty
  131. Y31 built red gate
  132. Y3Ray built nothing new
  133. Y3kyle built nothing new
  134. Y3NA built nothing new
  135. Y31 voted: no fishing in spring
  136. Y3The village chose: no rule
  137. Y4kyle threw a coarse net
  138. Y4kyle's net came up empty
  139. Y41 threw a fine net
  140. Y41's net took 18 fish
  141. Y4kyle threw a coarse net
  142. Y4kyle's net took 12 fish
  143. Y41 threw a fine net
  144. Y41's net took 19 fish
  145. Y41 threw a fine net
  146. Y41's net took 18 fish
  147. Y4kyle threw a coarse net
  148. Y4kyle's net took 7 fish
  149. Y4kyle threw a coarse net
  150. Y4kyle's net took 6 fish
  151. Y4kyle threw a coarse net
  152. Y4kyle's net took 11 fish
  153. Y4kyle threw a coarse net
  154. Y4kyle's net took 6 fish
  155. Y41 built lanterns
  156. Y4Ray built nothing new
  157. Y4kyle built red gate
  158. Y4NA built nothing new
  159. Y4kyle voted: the shallows protected
  160. Y4kyle voted: the shallows protected
  161. Y41 voted: no rule
  162. Y41 voted: no fishing in spring
  163. Y41 voted: the shallows protected
  164. Y4The village chose: no rule
  165. Y51 threw a fine net
  166. Y51's net took 24 fish
  167. Y51 threw a fine net
  168. Y51's net took 5 fish
  169. Y51 threw a fine net
  170. Y51's net took 11 fish
  171. Y51 threw a fine net
  172. Y51's net took 14 fish
  173. Y51 built upper floor
  174. Y5Ray built nothing new
  175. Y5kyle built nothing new
  176. Y5NA built nothing new
  177. Y5The season ended