明年无鱼
Next Year, No FishLake MDSN
The end 终

The houses

Jin built the biggest: pagoda

The whole village kept 440 fish.

The lake

年年
有余

Fish to spare

178 grown fish are left of the 165 you found. Left alone for a year, the lake would hold 188. Next year the lake will be as full as you found it.

What happened

  • Year 1Jin bought the first fine net.
  • Year 1Jin netted the golden carp (+8).

Every house

Why it went this way
what you found: 165 165 Year 1 146 Year 2 132 Year 3 140 Year 4 118 Year 5 178 End 188 Next year

Grown fish at the start of each year, at the end, and next year if nobody fishes. A seal marks a year the village kept a rule.

FamilyNetKeptFry takenBroke ruleBroke promiseHouse
aaacoarse40thatched hut 茅屋
Jin (bot)fine30749pagoda 宝塔
Mei (bot)coarse780red gate 红门
Old Wang (bot)coarse510tiled roof 瓦房

Why the fine net is hard to refuse

We simulated this lake many times with four families who all aim well, comparing each family with itself: the same lake and the same seat, once keeping a coarse net and once buying a fine net as soon as it could.

Other families with fine netsKeep coarseSwitchSwitching paid
0132.2164.386/96
195.1106.066/96
273.779.564/96
366.564.341/96

Fish each family kept, on average over 24 lakes. Switching paid most families most of the time, until the last one: when the three others already have fine nets, there is too little left to take. If every family keeps a coarse net, each keeps about 132 fish and the lake survived every time; if every family switches, each keeps about 64 and the lake died in all 24. Garrett Hardin called this the tragedy of the commons (1968); H. Scott Gordon had shown in 1954 that an open fishery draws in effort until the extra boats earn nothing.

It is not the only ending

Elinor Ostrom studied fisheries, forests and irrigation systems that lasted for centuries because the people who used them made their own rules, watched each other and answered whoever broke them (Ostrom 1990). In laboratory commons, promises made face to face helped, and promises backed by a way to answer cheaters helped more (Ostrom, Walker and Gardner 1992). Your meeting offered three of the oldest fishing rules: a limit on the gear, a closed season, and a protected nursery. In our simulations with four fine nets, a ban left 173 grown fish for the next year, a protected nursery 116, and a closed spring 51.

Li Ge cuts the duke's net. One summer Duke Xuan of Lu cast his nets in the river Si while the fish were spawning. His officer Li Ge cut the net and threw it away: the old rule spares the roe and the fry, he said, and casting nets while the fish spawn is greed without limit. The duke answered: this is a good net, it taught me the rule; keep it, so I do not forget. 里革断罟匡君 (Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”)

And from the Lüshi Chunqiu, c. 239 BC: 竭泽而渔，岂不获得？而明年无鱼。 “Drain the lake and of course you catch the fish. But next year there are no fish.”

  1. Lüshi Chunqiu, “Yi Shang” (c. 239 BC).
  2. Mencius, “Liang Hui Wang I”: 数罟不入洿池，鱼鳖不可胜食也.
  3. Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”: 里革断罟匡君 (鱼禁鲲鲕; 今鱼方别孕).
  4. Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859), 1243–1248.
  5. Gordon, H. S. (1954). The economic theory of a common-property resource: the fishery. Journal of Political Economy 62(2), 124–142.
  6. Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons. Cambridge University Press.
  7. Ostrom, E., Walker, J. & Gardner, R. (1992). Covenants with and without a sword. American Political Science Review 86(2), 404–417.
The whole record (301 rows)

This season's secret was 94cc11312e5c9f50986a9c8080a2b806c6be535e585f2199bdb6fb1d5adddba0. Its hash was fixed when the lake opened; with the secret and this record, anyone can replay every fish and every net.

  1. aaa joined
  2. Y1The season started
  3. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  4. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  5. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  6. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  7. Y1Mei's net took 3 fish
  8. Y1Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  9. Y1aaa threw a coarse net
  10. Y1aaa's net took 1 fish
  11. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  12. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  13. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  14. Y1Jin's net took 5 fish
  15. Y1Mei's net took 9 fish
  16. Y1Old Wang's net took 6 fish
  17. Y1aaa threw a coarse net
  18. Y1aaa's net took 3 fish
  19. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  20. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  21. Y1Jin's net took 14 fish
  22. Y1Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  23. Y1Jin bought a fine net
  24. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  25. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  26. Y1Mei's net took 6 fish
  27. Y1Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  28. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  29. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  30. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  31. Y1Jin's net took 5 fish
  32. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  33. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  34. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  35. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  36. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  37. Y1Old Wang asked aaa: coarse nets only, until winter?
  38. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish and the golden carp
  39. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  40. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  41. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  42. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  43. Y1Jin's net took 10 fish
  44. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  45. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  46. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  47. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  48. Y1Jin's net took 9 fish
  49. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  50. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  51. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  52. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  53. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  54. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  55. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  56. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  57. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  58. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  59. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  60. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  61. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  62. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  63. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  64. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  65. Y1Jin's net took 7 fish
  66. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  67. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  68. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  69. Y1Mei's net took 5 fish
  70. Y1Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  71. Y1aaa built nothing new
  72. Y1Jin built tiled roof
  73. Y1Mei built tiled roof
  74. Y1Old Wang built nothing new
  75. Y1Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  76. Y1Jin voted: no rule
  77. Y1Mei voted: no rule
  78. Y1The village chose: no rule
  79. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  80. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  81. Y2Jin's net took 19 fish
  82. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  83. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  84. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  85. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  86. Y2Jin's net took 8 fish
  87. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  88. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  89. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  90. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  91. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  92. Y2Jin's net took 17 fish
  93. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  94. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  95. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  96. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  97. Y2Jin's net took 16 fish
  98. Y2Old Wang's net took 8 fish
  99. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  100. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  101. Y2Jin's net took 13 fish
  102. Y2Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  103. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  104. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  105. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  106. Y2Old Wang asked aaa: coarse nets only, until winter?
  107. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  108. Y2Mei's net took 7 fish
  109. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  110. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  111. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  112. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  113. Y2Jin's net took 1 fish
  114. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  115. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  116. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  117. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  118. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  119. Y2Jin's net took 3 fish
  120. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  121. Y2Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  122. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  123. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  124. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  125. Y2Jin's net took 8 fish
  126. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  127. Y2Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  128. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  129. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  130. Y2Jin's net took 3 fish
  131. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  132. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  133. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  134. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  135. Y2Jin's net took 1 fish
  136. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  137. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  138. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  139. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  140. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  141. Y2Jin's net took 3 fish
  142. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  143. Y2Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  144. Y2aaa built nothing new
  145. Y2Jin built red gate and lanterns
  146. Y2Mei built nothing new
  147. Y2Old Wang built tiled roof
  148. Y2Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  149. Y2Jin voted: no rule
  150. Y2Mei voted: no rule
  151. Y2The village chose: no rule
  152. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  153. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  154. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  155. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  156. Y3Mei's net took 4 fish
  157. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  158. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  159. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  160. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  161. Y3Jin's net took 1 fish
  162. Y3Mei's net took 2 fish
  163. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  164. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  165. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  166. Y3Jin's net took 8 fish
  167. Y3Old Wang's net took 4 fish
  168. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  169. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  170. Y3Jin's net took 9 fish
  171. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  172. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  173. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  174. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  175. Y3Jin's net took 6 fish
  176. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  177. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  178. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  179. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  180. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  181. Y3Old Wang asked aaa: coarse nets only, until winter?
  182. Y3Jin's net took 9 fish
  183. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  184. Y3Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  185. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  186. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  187. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  188. Y3Jin's net took 11 fish
  189. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  190. Y3Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  191. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  192. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  193. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  194. Y3Jin's net took 1 fish
  195. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  196. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  197. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  198. Y3Mei's net took 8 fish
  199. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  200. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  201. Y3Jin's net took 5 fish
  202. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  203. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  204. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  205. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  206. Y3Jin's net took 7 fish
  207. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  208. Y3Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  209. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  210. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  211. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  212. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  213. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  214. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  215. Y3aaa built nothing new
  216. Y3Jin built upper floor
  217. Y3Mei built nothing new
  218. Y3Old Wang built nothing new
  219. Y3Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  220. Y3Jin voted: no rule
  221. Y3Mei voted: no rule
  222. Y3The village chose: no rule
  223. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  224. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  225. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  226. Y4Jin's net took 26 fish
  227. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  228. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  229. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  230. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  231. Y4Jin's net took 9 fish
  232. Y4Old Wang's net took 4 fish
  233. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  234. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  235. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  236. Y4Jin's net took 10 fish
  237. Y4Mei's net took 4 fish
  238. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  239. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  240. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  241. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  242. Y4Jin's net took 7 fish
  243. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  244. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  245. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  246. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  247. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  248. Y4Jin's net took 10 fish
  249. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  250. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  251. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  252. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  253. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  254. Y4Old Wang asked aaa: coarse nets only, until winter?
  255. Y4Jin's net took 11 fish
  256. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  257. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  258. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  259. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  260. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  261. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  262. Y4Mei's net took 5 fish
  263. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  264. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  265. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  266. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  267. Y4Jin's net took 9 fish
  268. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  269. Y4Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  270. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  271. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  272. Y4Mei's net took 9 fish
  273. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  274. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  275. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  276. Y4Jin's net took 7 fish
  277. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  278. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  279. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  280. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  281. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  282. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  283. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  284. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  285. Y4Jin's net took 4 fish
  286. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  287. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  288. Y4aaa built nothing new
  289. Y4Jin built pagoda
  290. Y4Mei built red gate
  291. Y4Old Wang built nothing new
  292. Y4Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  293. Y4Jin voted: no rule
  294. Y4Mei voted: no rule
  295. Y4The village chose: no rule
  296. Y5aaa built nothing new
  297. Y5Jin built nothing new
  298. Y5Mei built nothing new
  299. Y5Old Wang built nothing new
  300. Y5The season ended