明年无鱼
Next Year, No FishLake FPJS
The end 终

The houses

Jin built the biggest: pagoda

The whole village kept 573 fish.

The lake

鱼少
了

Fewer fish

21 grown fish are left of the 165 you found. Left alone for a year, the lake would hold 50. Next year the lake will hold fewer fish than you found.

What happened

  • Year 1Jin bought the first fine net.
  • Year 2Roy netted the golden carp (+8).
  • Year 3Roy netted the golden carp (+8).
  • Year 4Roy netted the golden carp (+8).

Every house

Why it went this way
what you found: 165 165 Year 1 109 Year 2 102 Year 3 96 Year 4 86 Year 5 21 End 50 Next year

Grown fish at the start of each year, at the end, and next year if nobody fishes. A seal marks a year the village kept a rule.

FamilyNetKeptFry takenBroke ruleBroke promiseHouse
Aicoarse600red gate 红门
Royfine1377lanterns 灯笼
Jin (bot)fine29687pagoda 宝塔
Mei (bot)fine8010red gate 红门

Why the fine net is hard to refuse

We simulated this lake many times with four families who all aim well, comparing each family with itself: the same lake and the same seat, once keeping a coarse net and once buying a fine net as soon as it could.

Other families with fine netsKeep coarseSwitchSwitching paid
0132.2164.386/96
195.1106.066/96
273.779.564/96
366.564.341/96

Fish each family kept, on average over 24 lakes. Switching paid most families most of the time, until the last one: when the three others already have fine nets, there is too little left to take. If every family keeps a coarse net, each keeps about 132 fish and the lake survived every time; if every family switches, each keeps about 64 and the lake died in all 24. Garrett Hardin called this the tragedy of the commons (1968); H. Scott Gordon had shown in 1954 that an open fishery draws in effort until the extra boats earn nothing.

It is not the only ending

Elinor Ostrom studied fisheries, forests and irrigation systems that lasted for centuries because the people who used them made their own rules, watched each other and answered whoever broke them (Ostrom 1990). In laboratory commons, promises made face to face helped, and promises backed by a way to answer cheaters helped more (Ostrom, Walker and Gardner 1992). Your meeting offered three of the oldest fishing rules: a limit on the gear, a closed season, and a protected nursery. In our simulations with four fine nets, a ban left 173 grown fish for the next year, a protected nursery 116, and a closed spring 51.

Li Ge cuts the duke's net. One summer Duke Xuan of Lu cast his nets in the river Si while the fish were spawning. His officer Li Ge cut the net and threw it away: the old rule spares the roe and the fry, he said, and casting nets while the fish spawn is greed without limit. The duke answered: this is a good net, it taught me the rule; keep it, so I do not forget. 里革断罟匡君 (Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”)

And from the Lüshi Chunqiu, c. 239 BC: 竭泽而渔，岂不获得？而明年无鱼。 “Drain the lake and of course you catch the fish. But next year there are no fish.”

  1. Lüshi Chunqiu, “Yi Shang” (c. 239 BC).
  2. Mencius, “Liang Hui Wang I”: 数罟不入洿池，鱼鳖不可胜食也.
  3. Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”: 里革断罟匡君 (鱼禁鲲鲕; 今鱼方别孕).
  4. Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859), 1243–1248.
  5. Gordon, H. S. (1954). The economic theory of a common-property resource: the fishery. Journal of Political Economy 62(2), 124–142.
  6. Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons. Cambridge University Press.
  7. Ostrom, E., Walker, J. & Gardner, R. (1992). Covenants with and without a sword. American Political Science Review 86(2), 404–417.
The whole record (377 rows)

This season's secret was 4fabd333882bb6970ae98275fbb04bd78c536bc89b96064baeff3c5a4781ef43. Its hash was fixed when the lake opened; with the secret and this record, anyone can replay every fish and every net.

  1. Ai joined
  2. Roy joined
  3. Y1The season started
  4. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  5. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  6. Y1Jin's net took 1 fish
  7. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  8. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  9. Y1Roy threw a coarse net
  10. Y1Ai's net took 1 fish
  11. Y1Roy's net took 1 fish
  12. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  13. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  14. Y1Jin's net took 8 fish
  15. Y1Mei's net took 4 fish
  16. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  17. Y1Ai's net took 8 fish
  18. Y1Roy threw a coarse net
  19. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  20. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  21. Y1Roy's net took 3 fish
  22. Y1Jin's net took 5 fish
  23. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  24. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  25. Y1Ai's net took 8 fish
  26. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  27. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  28. Y1Roy threw a coarse net
  29. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  30. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  31. Y1Roy's net came up empty
  32. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  33. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  34. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  35. Y1Ai's net took 9 fish
  36. Y1Jin's net took 7 fish
  37. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  38. Y1Jin bought a fine net
  39. Y1Roy threw a coarse net
  40. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  41. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  42. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  43. Y1Roy's net took 4 fish
  44. Y1Jin's net took 6 fish
  45. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  46. Y1Ai's net came up empty
  47. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  48. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  49. Y1Roy threw a coarse net
  50. Y1Jin's net took 10 fish
  51. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  52. Y1Roy's net took 8 fish
  53. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  54. Y1Ai's net took 4 fish
  55. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  56. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  57. Y1Roy threw a coarse net
  58. Y1Jin's net took 6 fish
  59. Y1Mei's net took 4 fish
  60. Y1Roy's net took 2 fish
  61. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  62. Y1Ai's net took 4 fish
  63. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  64. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  65. Y1Jin's net took 11 fish
  66. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  67. Y1Roy threw a coarse net
  68. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  69. Y1Roy's net took 3 fish
  70. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  71. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  72. Y1Ai's net came up empty
  73. Y1Jin's net took 6 fish
  74. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  75. Y1Ai threw a coarse net
  76. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  77. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  78. Y1Ai's net took 2 fish
  79. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  80. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  81. Y1Roy threw a coarse net
  82. Y1Roy's net took 4 fish
  83. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  84. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  85. Y1Ai built tiled roof
  86. Y1Roy built tiled roof
  87. Y1Jin built tiled roof
  88. Y1Mei built nothing new
  89. Y1Jin voted: no rule
  90. Y1Ai voted: no fishing in spring
  91. Y1Mei voted: no rule
  92. Y1The village chose: no rule
  93. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  94. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  95. Y2Jin's net took 16 fish
  96. Y2Mei's net took 8 fish
  97. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  98. Y2Jin's net took 8 fish
  99. Y2Ai threw a coarse net
  100. Y2Ai's net took 3 fish
  101. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  102. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  103. Y2Jin's net took 4 fish
  104. Y2Mei's net took 5 fish
  105. Y2Roy threw a coarse net
  106. Y2Roy's net took 6 fish
  107. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  108. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  109. Y2Jin's net took 8 fish
  110. Y2Mei's net took 4 fish
  111. Y2Ai threw a coarse net
  112. Y2Ai's net took 2 fish
  113. Y2Roy threw a coarse net
  114. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  115. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  116. Y2Roy's net took 5 fish
  117. Y2Jin's net came up empty
  118. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  119. Y2Roy threw a coarse net
  120. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  121. Y2Roy's net took 5 fish
  122. Y2Jin's net took 2 fish
  123. Y2Ai threw a coarse net
  124. Y2Ai's net took 5 fish
  125. Y2Roy threw a coarse net
  126. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  127. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  128. Y2Roy's net came up empty
  129. Y2Jin's net took 2 fish
  130. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  131. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  132. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  133. Y2Jin's net came up empty
  134. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  135. Y2Roy threw a coarse net
  136. Y2Roy's net took 3 fish
  137. Y2Ai threw a coarse net
  138. Y2Ai's net took 2 fish
  139. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  140. Y2Mei's net took 5 fish
  141. Y2Roy threw a coarse net
  142. Y2Roy's net took 4 fish
  143. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  144. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  145. Y2Jin's net took 2 fish
  146. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  147. Y2Roy threw a coarse net
  148. Y2Roy's net took 2 fish
  149. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  150. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  151. Y2Jin's net took 1 fish
  152. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  153. Y2Ai built nothing new
  154. Y2Roy built nothing new
  155. Y2Jin built red gate
  156. Y2Mei built tiled roof
  157. Y2Ai voted: fine nets banned
  158. Y2Jin voted: no rule
  159. Y2Mei voted: no rule
  160. Y2The village chose: no rule
  161. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  162. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  163. Y3Jin's net took 11 fish
  164. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  165. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  166. Y3Ai threw a coarse net
  167. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  168. Y3Roy's net took 9 fish
  169. Y3Ai's net came up empty
  170. Y3Jin's net took 20 fish
  171. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  172. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  173. Y3Ai threw a coarse net
  174. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  175. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  176. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  177. Y3Ai's net came up empty
  178. Y3Roy's net took 2 fish
  179. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  180. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  181. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  182. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  183. Y3Ai threw a coarse net
  184. Y3Ai's net took 6 fish
  185. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  186. Y3Roy's net took 5 fish
  187. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  188. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  189. Y3Jin's net took 1 fish
  190. Y3Mei's net took 1 fish
  191. Y3Ai threw a coarse net
  192. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  193. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  194. Y3Ai's net took 1 fish
  195. Y3Jin's net took 5 fish
  196. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  197. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  198. Y3Roy's net took 3 fish
  199. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  200. Y3Mei's net took 3 fish
  201. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  202. Y3Roy's net came up empty
  203. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  204. Y3Ai threw a coarse net
  205. Y3Mei's net took 6 fish
  206. Y3Ai's net took 5 fish
  207. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  208. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  209. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  210. Y3Roy's net took 3 fish
  211. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  212. Y3Mei's net took 4 fish
  213. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  214. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  215. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  216. Y3Roy's net took 1 fish
  217. Y3Jin's net took 6 fish
  218. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  219. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  220. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  221. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  222. Y3Roy's net took 1 fish
  223. Y3Jin's net took 1 fish
  224. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  225. Y3Ai threw a coarse net
  226. Y3Ai's net came up empty
  227. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  228. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  229. Y3Jin's net took 1 fish
  230. Y3Mei's net took 2 fish
  231. Y3Roy threw a coarse net
  232. Y3Ai built red gate
  233. Y3Roy built red gate
  234. Y3Jin built lanterns
  235. Y3Mei built nothing new
  236. Y3Roy's net took 4 fish
  237. Y3Jin voted: no rule
  238. Y3Mei voted: no rule
  239. Y3Ai voted: fine nets banned
  240. Y3Roy voted: fine nets banned
  241. Y3Ai voted: the shallows protected
  242. Y3The village chose: no rule
  243. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  244. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  245. Y4Jin's net took 15 fish
  246. Y4Mei's net took 3 fish
  247. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  248. Y4Roy's net took 8 fish
  249. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  250. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  251. Y4Jin's net took 10 fish
  252. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  253. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  254. Y4Roy's net took 10 fish
  255. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  256. Y4Mei's net took 2 fish
  257. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  258. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  259. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  260. Y4Roy's net took 1 fish
  261. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  262. Y4Mei's net took 6 fish
  263. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  264. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  265. Y4Roy's net came up empty
  266. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  267. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  268. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  269. Y4Jin's net took 2 fish
  270. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  271. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  272. Y4Roy's net came up empty
  273. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  274. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  275. Y4Jin's net took 4 fish
  276. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  277. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  278. Y4Roy's net took 4 fish
  279. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  280. Y4Mei's net took 7 fish
  281. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  282. Y4Roy's net took 3 fish
  283. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  284. Y4Jin's net took 2 fish
  285. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  286. Y4Roy's net took 2 fish
  287. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  288. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  289. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  290. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  291. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  292. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  293. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  294. Y4Roy's net came up empty
  295. Y4Jin's net took 5 fish
  296. Y4Mei's net took 3 fish
  297. Y4Roy threw a coarse net
  298. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  299. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  300. Y4Roy's net took 3 fish
  301. Y4Jin's net took 3 fish
  302. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  303. Y4Ai built nothing new
  304. Y4Roy built lanterns
  305. Y4Jin built upper floor
  306. Y4Mei built red gate
  307. Y4Jin voted: no rule
  308. Y4Mei voted: no rule
  309. Y4Ai voted: the shallows protected
  310. Y4Roy voted: no fishing in spring
  311. Y4The village chose: no rule
  312. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  313. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  314. Y5Jin's net took 16 fish
  315. Y5Mei's net took 4 fish
  316. Y5Roy threw a coarse net
  317. Y5Roy's net took 3 fish
  318. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  319. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  320. Y5Jin's net took 5 fish
  321. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  322. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  323. Y5Jin's net took 34 fish
  324. Y5Roy threw a coarse net
  325. Y5Roy's net took 7 fish
  326. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  327. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  328. Y5Jin's net took 6 fish
  329. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  330. Y5Roy threw a coarse net
  331. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  332. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  333. Y5Roy's net took 4 fish
  334. Y5Jin's net took 11 fish
  335. Y5Mei's net took 2 fish
  336. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  337. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  338. Y5Roy threw a coarse net
  339. Y5Jin's net took 8 fish
  340. Y5Mei's net took 2 fish
  341. Y5Roy's net took 3 fish
  342. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  343. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  344. Y5Jin's net took 5 fish
  345. Y5Mei's net took 2 fish
  346. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  347. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  348. Y5Jin's net took 6 fish
  349. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  350. Y5Roy bought a fine net
  351. Y5Mei bought a fine net
  352. Y5Roy threw a fine net
  353. Y5Roy's net came up empty
  354. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  355. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  356. Y5Jin's net took 6 fish
  357. Y5Mei's net took 5 fish
  358. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  359. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  360. Y5Jin's net took 4 fish
  361. Y5Mei's net took 2 fish
  362. Y5Roy threw a fine net
  363. Y5Roy's net took 4 fish
  364. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  365. Y5Jin's net took 1 fish
  366. Y5Roy threw a fine net
  367. Y5Roy's net took 3 fish
  368. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  369. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  370. Y5Ai threw a coarse net
  371. Y5Ai's net came up empty
  372. Y5Ai built nothing new
  373. Y5Roy built nothing new
  374. Y5Jin built pagoda
  375. Y5Mei built nothing new
  376. Y5The season ended