明年无鱼
Next Year, No FishLake DWTJ
The end 终

The houses

Jin built the biggest: pagoda

The whole village kept 525 fish.

The lake

年年
有余

Fish to spare

103 grown fish are left of the 165 you found. Left alone for a year, the lake would hold 188. Next year the lake will be as full as you found it.

What happened

  • Year 1Jin bought the first fine net.

Every house

Why it went this way
what you found: 165 165 Year 1 112 Year 2 117 Year 3 116 Year 4 109 Year 5 103 End 188 Next year

Grown fish at the start of each year, at the end, and next year if nobody fishes. A seal marks a year the village kept a rule.

FamilyNetKeptFry takenBroke ruleBroke promiseHouse
Avacoarse420tiled roof 瓦房
Jin (bot)fine30977pagoda 宝塔
Mei (bot)coarse1170lanterns 灯笼
Old Wang (bot)coarse570tiled roof 瓦房

Why the fine net is hard to refuse

We simulated this lake many times with four families who all aim well, comparing each family with itself: the same lake and the same seat, once keeping a coarse net and once buying a fine net as soon as it could.

Other families with fine netsKeep coarseSwitchSwitching paid
0132.2164.386/96
195.1106.066/96
273.779.564/96
366.564.341/96

Fish each family kept, on average over 24 lakes. Switching paid most families most of the time, until the last one: when the three others already have fine nets, there is too little left to take. If every family keeps a coarse net, each keeps about 132 fish and the lake survived every time; if every family switches, each keeps about 64 and the lake died in all 24. Garrett Hardin called this the tragedy of the commons (1968); H. Scott Gordon had shown in 1954 that an open fishery draws in effort until the extra boats earn nothing.

It is not the only ending

Elinor Ostrom studied fisheries, forests and irrigation systems that lasted for centuries because the people who used them made their own rules, watched each other and answered whoever broke them (Ostrom 1990). In laboratory commons, promises made face to face helped, and promises backed by a way to answer cheaters helped more (Ostrom, Walker and Gardner 1992). Your meeting offered three of the oldest fishing rules: a limit on the gear, a closed season, and a protected nursery. In our simulations with four fine nets, a ban left 173 grown fish for the next year, a protected nursery 116, and a closed spring 51.

Li Ge cuts the duke's net. One summer Duke Xuan of Lu cast his nets in the river Si while the fish were spawning. His officer Li Ge cut the net and threw it away: the old rule spares the roe and the fry, he said, and casting nets while the fish spawn is greed without limit. The duke answered: this is a good net, it taught me the rule; keep it, so I do not forget. 里革断罟匡君 (Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”)

And from the Lüshi Chunqiu, c. 239 BC: 竭泽而渔，岂不获得？而明年无鱼。 “Drain the lake and of course you catch the fish. But next year there are no fish.”

  1. Lüshi Chunqiu, “Yi Shang” (c. 239 BC).
  2. Mencius, “Liang Hui Wang I”: 数罟不入洿池，鱼鳖不可胜食也.
  3. Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”: 里革断罟匡君 (鱼禁鲲鲕; 今鱼方别孕).
  4. Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859), 1243–1248.
  5. Gordon, H. S. (1954). The economic theory of a common-property resource: the fishery. Journal of Political Economy 62(2), 124–142.
  6. Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons. Cambridge University Press.
  7. Ostrom, E., Walker, J. & Gardner, R. (1992). Covenants with and without a sword. American Political Science Review 86(2), 404–417.
The whole record (375 rows)

This season's secret was d916296b19954444fc46add38d220716c662f4fe90b4852e38b8a4becb6bb7b5. Its hash was fixed when the lake opened; with the secret and this record, anyone can replay every fish and every net.

  1. Ava joined
  2. Y1The season started
  3. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  4. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  5. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  6. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  7. Y1Ava threw a coarse net
  8. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  9. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  10. Y1Ava's net took 3 fish
  11. Y1Jin's net took 5 fish
  12. Y1Old Wang's net took 4 fish
  13. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  14. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  15. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  16. Y1Ava threw a coarse net
  17. Y1Jin's net took 1 fish
  18. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  19. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  20. Y1Ava's net came up empty
  21. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  22. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  23. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  24. Y1Jin's net took 3 fish
  25. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  26. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  27. Y1Ava threw a coarse net
  28. Y1Ava's net took 4 fish
  29. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  30. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  31. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  32. Y1Jin's net took 10 fish
  33. Y1Mei's net took 4 fish
  34. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  35. Y1Ava threw a coarse net
  36. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  37. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  38. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  39. Y1Ava's net took 19 fish
  40. Y1Jin's net came up empty
  41. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  42. Y1Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  43. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  44. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  45. Y1Mei's net took 7 fish
  46. Y1Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  47. Y1Ava threw a coarse net
  48. Y1Ava's net took 7 fish
  49. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  50. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  51. Y1Jin's net took 1 fish
  52. Y1Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  53. Y1Jin bought a fine net
  54. Y1Ava threw a coarse net
  55. Y1Ava's net took 9 fish
  56. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  57. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  58. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  59. Y1Jin's net took 5 fish
  60. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  61. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  62. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  63. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  64. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  65. Y1Jin's net took 13 fish
  66. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  67. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  68. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  69. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  70. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  71. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  72. Y1Mei's net took 3 fish
  73. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  74. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  75. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  76. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  77. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  78. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  79. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  80. Y1Ava built tiled roof
  81. Y1Jin built nothing new
  82. Y1Mei built nothing new
  83. Y1Old Wang built nothing new
  84. Y1Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  85. Y1Jin voted: no rule
  86. Y1Mei voted: no rule
  87. Y1The village chose: no rule
  88. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  89. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  90. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  91. Y2Jin's net took 14 fish
  92. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  93. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  94. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  95. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  96. Y2Jin's net took 13 fish
  97. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  98. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  99. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  100. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  101. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  102. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  103. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  104. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  105. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  106. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  107. Y2Jin's net came up empty
  108. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  109. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  110. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  111. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  112. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  113. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  114. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  115. Y2Old Wang's net took 8 fish
  116. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  117. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  118. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  119. Y2Old Wang asked Ava: coarse nets only, until winter?
  120. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  121. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  122. Y2Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  123. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  124. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  125. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  126. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  127. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  128. Y2Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  129. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  130. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  131. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  132. Y2Jin's net took 4 fish
  133. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  134. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  135. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  136. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  137. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  138. Y2Jin's net took 3 fish
  139. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  140. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  141. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  142. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  143. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  144. Y2Jin's net took 7 fish
  145. Y2Mei's net took 1 fish
  146. Y2Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  147. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  148. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  149. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  150. Y2Jin's net took 4 fish
  151. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  152. Y2Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  153. Y2Jin threw a fine net
  154. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  155. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  156. Y2Jin's net took 4 fish
  157. Y2Mei's net took 6 fish
  158. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  159. Y2Ava built nothing new
  160. Y2Jin built tiled roof and red gate
  161. Y2Mei built tiled roof
  162. Y2Old Wang built tiled roof
  163. Y2Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  164. Y2Jin voted: no rule
  165. Y2Mei voted: no rule
  166. Y2The village chose: no rule
  167. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  168. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  169. Y3Mei's net took 5 fish
  170. Y3Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  171. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  172. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  173. Y3Jin's net took 11 fish
  174. Y3Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  175. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  176. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  177. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  178. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  179. Y3Mei's net took 2 fish
  180. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  181. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  182. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  183. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  184. Y3Jin's net took 3 fish
  185. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  186. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  187. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  188. Y3Mei's net took 9 fish
  189. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  190. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  191. Y3Old Wang asked Ava: coarse nets only, until winter?
  192. Y3Jin's net took 7 fish
  193. Y3Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  194. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  195. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  196. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  197. Y3Jin's net took 5 fish
  198. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  199. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  200. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  201. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  202. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  203. Y3Jin's net took 1 fish
  204. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  205. Y3Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  206. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  207. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  208. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  209. Y3Jin's net took 11 fish
  210. Y3Mei's net took 4 fish
  211. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  212. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  213. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  214. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  215. Y3Jin's net took 3 fish
  216. Y3Mei's net took 2 fish
  217. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  218. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  219. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  220. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  221. Y3Jin's net took 6 fish
  222. Y3Mei's net took 6 fish
  223. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  224. Y3Jin threw a fine net
  225. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  226. Y3Jin's net took 3 fish
  227. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  228. Y3Ava built nothing new
  229. Y3Jin built lanterns
  230. Y3Mei built red gate
  231. Y3Old Wang built nothing new
  232. Y3Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  233. Y3Jin voted: no rule
  234. Y3Mei voted: no rule
  235. Y3The village chose: no rule
  236. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  237. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  238. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  239. Y4Jin's net took 8 fish
  240. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  241. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  242. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  243. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  244. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  245. Y4Jin's net took 12 fish
  246. Y4Mei's net took 8 fish
  247. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  248. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  249. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  250. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  251. Y4Jin's net took 6 fish
  252. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  253. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  254. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  255. Y4Jin's net took 14 fish
  256. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  257. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  258. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  259. Y4Jin's net took 10 fish
  260. Y4Mei's net took 6 fish
  261. Y4Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  262. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  263. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  264. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  265. Y4Old Wang asked Ava: coarse nets only, until winter?
  266. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  267. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  268. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  269. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  270. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  271. Y4Jin's net took 6 fish
  272. Y4Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  273. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  274. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  275. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  276. Y4Jin's net took 2 fish
  277. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  278. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  279. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  280. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  281. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  282. Y4Jin's net took 5 fish
  283. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  284. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  285. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  286. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  287. Y4Jin's net took 6 fish
  288. Y4Mei's net took 8 fish
  289. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  290. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  291. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  292. Y4Jin's net took 10 fish
  293. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  294. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  295. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  296. Y4Mei threw a coarse net
  297. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  298. Y4Jin's net took 8 fish
  299. Y4Mei's net took 3 fish
  300. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  301. Y4Ava built nothing new
  302. Y4Jin built upper floor
  303. Y4Mei built nothing new
  304. Y4Old Wang built nothing new
  305. Y4Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  306. Y4Jin voted: no rule
  307. Y4Mei voted: no rule
  308. Y4The village chose: no rule
  309. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  310. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  311. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  312. Y5Jin's net took 7 fish
  313. Y5Mei's net took 6 fish
  314. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  315. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  316. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  317. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  318. Y5Jin's net took 15 fish
  319. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  320. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  321. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  322. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  323. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  324. Y5Jin's net took 13 fish
  325. Y5Mei's net took 8 fish
  326. Y5Old Wang's net took 4 fish
  327. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  328. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  329. Y5Mei's net took 4 fish
  330. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  331. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  332. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  333. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  334. Y5Jin's net took 5 fish
  335. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  336. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  337. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  338. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  339. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  340. Y5Old Wang asked Ava: coarse nets only, until winter?
  341. Y5Jin's net took 10 fish
  342. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  343. Y5Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  344. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  345. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  346. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  347. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  348. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  349. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  350. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  351. Y5Jin's net came up empty
  352. Y5Mei's net took 2 fish
  353. Y5Old Wang's net took 4 fish
  354. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  355. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  356. Y5Jin's net took 8 fish
  357. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  358. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  359. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  360. Y5Jin's net took 7 fish
  361. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  362. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  363. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  364. Y5Jin's net took 7 fish
  365. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  366. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  367. Y5Mei threw a coarse net
  368. Y5Jin's net took 4 fish
  369. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  370. Y5Ava built nothing new
  371. Y5Jin built pagoda
  372. Y5Mei built lanterns
  373. Y5Old Wang built nothing new
  374. Y5The season ended