明年无鱼
Next Year, No FishLake CXVS
The end 终

The houses

Jin built the biggest: pagoda

The whole village kept 459 fish.

The lake

年年
有余

Fish to spare

54 grown fish are left of the 165 you found. Left alone for a year, the lake would hold 130. Next year the lake will be as full as you found it.

What happened

  • Year 1Mei netted the golden carp (+8).
  • Year 1Jin bought the first fine net.
  • Year 1The village agreed: fine nets banned, from year 2.
  • Year 2Jin broke the village rule (fine nets banned).
  • Year 21 broke the village rule (fine nets banned).
  • Year 2Mei broke the village rule (fine nets banned).

Every house

Why it went this way
what you found: 165 165 Year 1 111禁 Year 2 72禁 Year 3 59 Year 4 60 Year 5 54 End 130 Next year

Grown fish at the start of each year, at the end, and next year if nobody fishes. A seal marks a year the village kept a rule.

FamilyNetKeptFry takenBroke ruleBroke promiseHouse
1fine2681tiled roof 瓦房
Jin (bot)fine2566719pagoda 宝塔
Mei (bot)fine1234218lanterns 灯笼
Old Wang (bot)coarse540tiled roof 瓦房

Why the fine net is hard to refuse

We simulated this lake many times with four families who all aim well, comparing each family with itself: the same lake and the same seat, once keeping a coarse net and once buying a fine net as soon as it could.

Other families with fine netsKeep coarseSwitchSwitching paid
0132.2164.386/96
195.1106.066/96
273.779.564/96
366.564.341/96

Fish each family kept, on average over 24 lakes. Switching paid most families most of the time, until the last one: when the three others already have fine nets, there is too little left to take. If every family keeps a coarse net, each keeps about 132 fish and the lake survived every time; if every family switches, each keeps about 64 and the lake died in all 24. Garrett Hardin called this the tragedy of the commons (1968); H. Scott Gordon had shown in 1954 that an open fishery draws in effort until the extra boats earn nothing.

It is not the only ending

Elinor Ostrom studied fisheries, forests and irrigation systems that lasted for centuries because the people who used them made their own rules, watched each other and answered whoever broke them (Ostrom 1990). In laboratory commons, promises made face to face helped, and promises backed by a way to answer cheaters helped more (Ostrom, Walker and Gardner 1992). Your meeting offered three of the oldest fishing rules: a limit on the gear, a closed season, and a protected nursery. In our simulations with four fine nets, a ban left 173 grown fish for the next year, a protected nursery 116, and a closed spring 51.

Li Ge cuts the duke's net. One summer Duke Xuan of Lu cast his nets in the river Si while the fish were spawning. His officer Li Ge cut the net and threw it away: the old rule spares the roe and the fry, he said, and casting nets while the fish spawn is greed without limit. The duke answered: this is a good net, it taught me the rule; keep it, so I do not forget. 里革断罟匡君 (Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”)

And from the Lüshi Chunqiu, c. 239 BC: 竭泽而渔，岂不获得？而明年无鱼。 “Drain the lake and of course you catch the fish. But next year there are no fish.”

  1. Lüshi Chunqiu, “Yi Shang” (c. 239 BC).
  2. Mencius, “Liang Hui Wang I”: 数罟不入洿池，鱼鳖不可胜食也.
  3. Guoyu, “Lu Yu I”: 里革断罟匡君 (鱼禁鲲鲕; 今鱼方别孕).
  4. Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859), 1243–1248.
  5. Gordon, H. S. (1954). The economic theory of a common-property resource: the fishery. Journal of Political Economy 62(2), 124–142.
  6. Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons. Cambridge University Press.
  7. Ostrom, E., Walker, J. & Gardner, R. (1992). Covenants with and without a sword. American Political Science Review 86(2), 404–417.
The whole record (379 rows)

This season's secret was 1837d80f86f23c8e11488130751c7defe3070d51cefbbb9cabe071b771f9a600. Its hash was fixed when the lake opened; with the secret and this record, anyone can replay every fish and every net.

  1. 1 joined
  2. Y1The season started
  3. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  4. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  5. Y1Jin's net took 1 fish
  6. Y1Mei's net took 1 fish
  7. Y11 threw a coarse net
  8. Y11's net took 5 fish
  9. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  10. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  11. Y1Jin's net took 1 fish
  12. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  13. Y11 threw a coarse net
  14. Y11's net took 7 fish
  15. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  16. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  17. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  18. Y1Jin's net took 8 fish
  19. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  20. Y1Old Wang's net took 4 fish
  21. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  22. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  23. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  24. Y1Jin's net took 4 fish
  25. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  26. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  27. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  28. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  29. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  30. Y1Jin's net came up empty
  31. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  32. Y1Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  33. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  34. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  35. Y1Jin's net took 5 fish
  36. Y1Old Wang's net took 5 fish
  37. Y11 threw a coarse net
  38. Y1Jin threw a coarse net
  39. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  40. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  41. Y11's net took 9 fish
  42. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  43. Y1Mei's net took 8 fish and the golden carp
  44. Y1Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  45. Y1Jin bought a fine net
  46. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  47. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  48. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  49. Y1Jin's net took 8 fish
  50. Y1Mei's net took 2 fish
  51. Y1Old Wang's net came up empty
  52. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  53. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  54. Y1Jin's net took 12 fish
  55. Y1Mei's net took 6 fish
  56. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  57. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  58. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  59. Y1Jin's net took 3 fish
  60. Y1Mei's net took 7 fish
  61. Y1Old Wang's net took 4 fish
  62. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  63. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  64. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  65. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  66. Y1Mei's net took 8 fish
  67. Y1Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  68. Y1Jin threw a fine net
  69. Y1Mei threw a coarse net
  70. Y1Old Wang threw a coarse net
  71. Y1Jin's net took 2 fish
  72. Y1Mei's net came up empty
  73. Y1Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  74. Y11 built nothing new
  75. Y1Jin built tiled roof
  76. Y1Mei built tiled roof
  77. Y1Old Wang built nothing new
  78. Y1Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  79. Y11 voted: fine nets banned
  80. Y1Jin voted: no rule
  81. Y1Mei voted: fine nets banned
  82. Y1The village chose: fine nets banned
  83. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  84. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  85. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  86. Y2Jin's net took 9 fish
  87. Y2Mei's net took 6 fish
  88. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  89. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  90. Y2Mei threw a coarse net
  91. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  92. Y2Jin's net took 13 fish
  93. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  94. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  95. Y21 bought a fine net
  96. Y2Mei bought a fine net
  97. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  98. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  99. Y2Jin's net took 23 fish
  100. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  101. Y21 threw a fine net (a breach)
  102. Y21's net took 25 fish
  103. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  104. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  105. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  106. Y2Jin's net took 7 fish
  107. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  108. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  109. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  110. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  111. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  112. Y2Jin's net took 8 fish
  113. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  114. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  115. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  116. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  117. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  118. Y2Old Wang asked 1: coarse nets only, until winter?
  119. Y2Jin's net took 12 fish
  120. Y2Mei's net took 11 fish
  121. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  122. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  123. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  124. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  125. Y2Jin's net took 8 fish
  126. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  127. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  128. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  129. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  130. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  131. Y2Jin's net came up empty
  132. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  133. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  134. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  135. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  136. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  137. Y2Jin's net took 6 fish
  138. Y2Mei's net took 3 fish
  139. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  140. Y21 promised Old Wang
  141. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  142. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  143. Y2Mei's net took 7 fish
  144. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  145. Y2Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  146. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  147. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  148. Y2Jin's net took 5 fish
  149. Y2Mei's net came up empty
  150. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  151. Y2Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  152. Y2Old Wang threw a coarse net
  153. Y2Mei's net took 2 fish
  154. Y2Old Wang's net came up empty
  155. Y21 built tiled roof
  156. Y2Jin built red gate and lanterns
  157. Y2Mei built nothing new
  158. Y2Old Wang built nothing new
  159. Y2Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  160. Y21 voted: fine nets banned
  161. Y2Jin voted: no rule
  162. Y2Mei voted: fine nets banned
  163. Y2The village chose: fine nets banned
  164. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  165. Y3Mei threw a coarse net
  166. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  167. Y3Jin's net took 5 fish
  168. Y3Mei's net took 10 fish
  169. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  170. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  171. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  172. Y3Jin's net took 18 fish
  173. Y3Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  174. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  175. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  176. Y3Mei's net took 2 fish
  177. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  178. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  179. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  180. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  181. Y3Jin's net took 9 fish
  182. Y3Mei's net took 6 fish
  183. Y3Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  184. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  185. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  186. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  187. Y3Jin's net took 4 fish
  188. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  189. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  190. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  191. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  192. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  193. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  194. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  195. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  196. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  197. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  198. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  199. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  200. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  201. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  202. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  203. Y3Mei's net took 6 fish
  204. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  205. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  206. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  207. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  208. Y3Mei's net came up empty
  209. Y3Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  210. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  211. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  212. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  213. Y3Jin's net took 1 fish
  214. Y3Mei's net took 3 fish
  215. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  216. Y3Mei threw a fine net (a breach)
  217. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  218. Y3Mei's net took 4 fish
  219. Y3Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  220. Y3Jin threw a fine net (a breach)
  221. Y3Old Wang threw a coarse net
  222. Y3Jin's net took 2 fish
  223. Y3Old Wang's net came up empty
  224. Y31 built nothing new
  225. Y3Jin built nothing new
  226. Y3Mei built red gate
  227. Y3Old Wang built tiled roof
  228. Y3Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  229. Y3Jin voted: no rule
  230. Y3Mei voted: no rule
  231. Y3The village chose: no rule
  232. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  233. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  234. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  235. Y4Jin's net took 8 fish
  236. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  237. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  238. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  239. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  240. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  241. Y4Jin's net took 4 fish
  242. Y4Mei's net took 9 fish
  243. Y4Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  244. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  245. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  246. Y4Jin's net took 2 fish
  247. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  248. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  249. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  250. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  251. Y4Jin's net took 4 fish
  252. Y4Mei's net took 1 fish
  253. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  254. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  255. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  256. Y4Jin's net took 6 fish
  257. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  258. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  259. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  260. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  261. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  262. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  263. Y4Old Wang's net came up empty
  264. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  265. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  266. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  267. Y4Jin's net took 5 fish
  268. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  269. Y4Old Wang's net took 4 fish
  270. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  271. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  272. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  273. Y4Jin's net took 5 fish
  274. Y4Mei's net came up empty
  275. Y4Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  276. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  277. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  278. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  279. Y4Jin's net took 4 fish
  280. Y4Mei's net took 2 fish
  281. Y4Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  282. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  283. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  284. Y4Jin's net came up empty
  285. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  286. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  287. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  288. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  289. Y4Jin's net took 1 fish
  290. Y4Mei's net took 2 fish
  291. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  292. Y4Jin threw a fine net
  293. Y4Mei threw a fine net
  294. Y4Old Wang threw a coarse net
  295. Y4Jin's net took 2 fish
  296. Y4Mei's net took 2 fish
  297. Y4Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  298. Y41 built nothing new
  299. Y4Jin built upper floor
  300. Y4Mei built nothing new
  301. Y4Old Wang built nothing new
  302. Y4Old Wang voted: fine nets banned
  303. Y4Jin voted: no rule
  304. Y4Mei voted: no rule
  305. Y4The village chose: no rule
  306. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  307. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  308. Y5Jin's net took 4 fish
  309. Y5Old Wang's net took 2 fish
  310. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  311. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  312. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  313. Y5Jin's net took 8 fish
  314. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  315. Y5Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  316. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  317. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  318. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  319. Y5Jin's net took 4 fish
  320. Y5Mei's net took 4 fish
  321. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  322. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  323. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  324. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  325. Y5Jin's net took 5 fish
  326. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  327. Y5Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  328. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  329. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  330. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  331. Y5Jin's net took 7 fish
  332. Y5Mei's net took 4 fish
  333. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  334. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  335. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  336. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  337. Y5Jin's net took 2 fish
  338. Y5Mei's net took 1 fish
  339. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  340. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  341. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  342. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  343. Y5Jin's net took 5 fish
  344. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  345. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  346. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  347. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  348. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  349. Y5Jin's net took 2 fish
  350. Y5Mei's net came up empty
  351. Y5Old Wang's net took 3 fish
  352. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  353. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  354. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  355. Y5Jin's net took 2 fish
  356. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  357. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  358. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  359. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  360. Y5Jin's net took 2 fish
  361. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  362. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  363. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  364. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  365. Y5Jin's net took 4 fish
  366. Y5Mei's net took 5 fish
  367. Y5Old Wang's net came up empty
  368. Y5Jin threw a fine net
  369. Y5Mei threw a fine net
  370. Y5Old Wang threw a coarse net
  371. Y5Jin's net took 5 fish
  372. Y5Mei's net took 3 fish
  373. Y5Old Wang's net took 1 fish
  374. Y51 built nothing new
  375. Y5Jin built pagoda
  376. Y5Mei built lanterns
  377. Y5Old Wang built nothing new
  378. Y5The season ended